Inequality Evolution: How rule changes changed scoring in handball

Handball has evolved significantly in recent decades: it’s no secret that the pace of the game has increased. Not only has the number of possessions per game grown, but the efficiency of those possessions has also improved.

There are many reasons behind this evolution, including teams’ efforts to reduce turnovers and technical faults, the adoption of modern attacking systems, the increasing importance of line and wings players and the improvement of physical preparation. However, the primary cause is the IHF’s commitment to make the sport faster, more dynamic and more attack-oriented, which became a reality through a series of rule changes, especially these two:

– In 1997, the adjustment to the throw-off rule allowed teams to restart the game immediately after conceding a goal.

– In 2016, the modification of the court player-goalkeeper substitution rule increased coaches’ confidence in using the 7-vs-6 tactic.

The fast throw-off takes advantage of the opponent’s disorganized defence, targeting weak points without waiting for static formations. In response, defences have adapted and become more dynamic, active, and mobile right after conceding a goal. According to Dietrich Späte, the rule favoured the attack but also forced defenders not to remain static, but to move around the court to intercept passes and force turnovers. This rule change has established a high-speed style of play with continuous transitions.

The 7-vs-6 tactic gives the attacking team a numerical, but it also increases the pressure to avoid turnovers. Späte notes that in the long term the teams that use it are not benefitting from it. However, it cannot be denied that the court player–goalkeeper substitution is an added solution for teams — especially to deal with situations of numerical inferiority or to attempt a comeback — and that it contributes to a faster pace of play due to the constant attacking numerical superiority and the occurrence of empty-net shots.

Can we measure the impact of these changes through data? And perhaps more importantly: Is handball a more balanced sport now than it was before these rule changes?

To explore this, let’s turn to the sport’s most prestigious competition — which also happens to be the one with the least data analysis to date: the Olympic Games.

If we study the evolution of men’s handball in the Olympic Games from 1980 to 2024, we can observe a cumulative growth of 34.9% in goals per game due to the increased number of possessions resulting from the faster pace of the game. Three distinct periods can be identified within this timeframe:

– From 1980 to 1992, the number of goals per game remained stable at around 41–43, suggesting that the pace had not increased.

– Between 1996 and 2008, coinciding with IHF reforms aimed at accelerating the game, there was a steady rise in the number of goals per game, reaching over 54 — a total increase of 28.4%.

– After a slight decline in 2012, there has been a notable increase in goals per game since the introduction of the 7-vs-6 tactic in 2016, climbing to more than 58.

If we take a look at goals per team, we can see that from 1980 to 1992, the gap between the highest and lowest scoring teams was narrowing. With the shift toward a faster-paced game, the gap began to widen — reaching a maximum difference of 14 goals. Since the introduction of the 7-vs-6 tactic in 2016, the gap has narrowed again.

In short, over these 40 matches, the number of goals scored by the lowest-scoring team has increased by 78.6%, while the number scored by the highest-scoring team has grown by 26%.

The goal difference per game shows that the number of matches decided by 0 (draws) or 1 goal increased during the 2004–2024 period compared to 1980–2000. It is also evident that, between 2004 and 2024, the percentage of matches decided by more than 4 goals has risen. Results with a margin of 15 goals or more did not occur until 1996, and since then, they have been recorded in 5 out of 8 tournaments.

Overall, the rule changes have resulted in both closer contests and more heavy defeats.

Goal difference explains 66% of the variation in Olympic rankings between 1980 and 2024. When we divide the data into two periods of eight tournaments each, we observe that the regression curve is steeper for 1980–2000 than for 2004–2024. This indicates that, in recent Olympic tournaments, a smaller average goal difference per game is sufficient to shift ranking positions, suggesting a lower dispersion in dominance across teams and a more competitive balance among participants.

To sum up, the rule changes aimed at making the sport faster and more dynamic have led to an increase in the average number of goals per game. The number of goals scored by the lowest-scoring teams has grown significantly more than that of the highest-scoring teams. Additionally, there has been a rise in the number of draws and one-goal-margin matches — although results with large goal differences have also become more frequent. Finally, recent tournaments show a narrower gap in goals per game between ranking positions.